Trump’s Economic Recovery Shows Resilience

Trump’s Economic Recovery Shows Resilience

Under the Trump Administration, America Is Witnessing the Fastest Labor Market Recovery from Any Economic crisis in History, to Date.

The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, roughly in-line with market expectations.

With the record-breaking job gains in May (+2.7 million), June (+4.8 million), July (+1.7 million), and now August (+1.4 million), the economy has added 10.6 million jobs over the past 4 months.

The May – August gains reverse roughly 5 in 10 of the jobs lost in March and April.

Job gains were largest in retail trade (+249,000), professional and business services (+197,000), leisure and hospitality (+174,000), and education and health services (+147,000).

The manufacturing (+29,000) and construction sectors (+16,000) also saw job growth. Because the survey reference period was the pay period that includes August 12, these data reflect partial re-openings and shutdowns across States.

The Unemployment Rate Plummets, Far Below Market Expectations.

The unemployment rate in August plummeted 1.8 percentage points (p.p.) to 8.4 percent, beating market expectations of a 0.4 p.p. decline to 9.8 percent.

The August drop in the unemployment rate is the second largest decline since the series began in 1948. The largest decline on record of 2.2 p.p. was recorded in June.

Since the April peak, in just 4 months the unemployment rate has decreased 6.3 p.p. In contrast, it took nearly 9 years following the Great Recession peak in October 2009 for the unemployment rate to fall 6.3 p.p.

For the first time since the pandemic-peak in April, the unemployment rate has fallen below the peak in the Great Recession of 10.0 percent.

African American employment has increased by 1.3 million (+7.9%) from the recent April low. In August, it increased 367,000 following strong gains in May (+283,000), June (+404,000), and July (+234,000).

• The unemployment rate for African Americans decreased 1.6 p.p., for Hispanics by 2.4 p.p., for Asian Americans by 1.3 p.p., and for those with less than a high school diploma by 2.8 p.p.

• The unemployment rate for adult women (age 20+) also fell by 2.1 p.p., the second largest decline recorded since the series began following the June decline of 2.7 p.p.

• opulation ratio increased 0.4 p.p. to 56.5 percent in August.

• Reentrants to the labor force who are unemployed remained elevated at 2.1 million in August, 310,000 above their August 2019 level, showing workers’ confidence in their ability to find a job.

Under the Trump Administration, America Is Witnessing the Fastest Labor Market Recovery from Any Economic crisis in History, To Date.

Job creation in May, June, July, and August has met or exceeded expectations.

In those 4 months, job creation beat market expectations by a combined 12.2 million.

In just 4 months, the unemployment rate has plummeted to a rate BELOW what most forecasters had recently projected the rate to be at the end of 2020.

The CBO projected in July that at the end of 2020 the unemployment rate would still be at 10.5 percent.

The FOMC in June projected the unemployment rate would be 9.3 percent at the end of 2020.

Similarly, the Blue Chip consensus forecast in August projected an unemployment rate of 9.3 percent at the end of 2020.

Leave a Comment